Decision D18 · 18 of 21
Probabilistic modelling stack
Choose with the first C15 template
DEFERRED
- Status
- DEFERRED (7 Oct 2026, Vinayak)
- Options
- PyMC; NumPyro (JAX); Stan (CmdStanPy)
- Trade-offs
- Python ergonomics and community (PyMC) vs speed on large hierarchical models (NumPyro) vs a mature sampler with a separate modelling language (Stan); each licence must be recorded in the registry
- Used by
- Kennedy–O'Hagan calibration in the C15 template (E69); deferred fleet pooling in C40
- Recommendation
- Choose PyMC, NumPyro or Stan when the first C15 template needs Kennedy–O'Hagan calibration; record the licence in the registry then.
- Why
- No template needs it yet.
- Evidence
- E69; C15, C40.
- Reversible
- Not applicable until chosen.
- Blocks
- C15 template with Kennedy–O'Hagan calibration.
Page history: last 2 changes
- docs(research): retire stale research to archive/research-2026-10 with a register
ab84821 - docs(technical): split decision board into DECISIONS.md
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