Decision D8 · 8 of 21
Time-series foundation models in production
Shadow-only until a held-out win
RECOMMENDED
- Status
- RECOMMENDED — awaiting Vinayak
- Options
- Keep shadow-only until they beat LightGBM on held-out plant data; use for cold start only
- Trade-offs
- Licences differ (TimesFM and Chronos permissive; TabPFN newer models non-commercial, E37)
- Recommendation
- Shadow-only. A foundation model may speak only after it beats the LightGBM baseline on held-out plant data with calibrated intervals (D14 thresholds).
- Why
- No held-out win exists yet; licences differ by model.
- Evidence
- L3
challenger/(PROMOTION_ALLOWED = False); E37 (TabPFN licence change). - Reversible
- Yes. Promotion is a registry action.
- Blocks
- None on the critical path.
Page history: last 2 changes
- docs(research): retire stale research to archive/research-2026-10 with a register
ab84821 - docs(technical): split decision board into DECISIONS.md
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